觀點人民幣

Beijing is right to ignore the currency pleas
中國不讓人民幣升值有道理


滙豐首席經濟學家簡世勳:美國的政策與其說是推動人民幣升值,不如說是讓美元貶值。美元一旦貶值,美國國債的價值按人民幣計算將大幅下跌,在中方看來,這看上去當然像是一種違約。

W hile everyone in Washington thinks the renminbi should be revalued, not everyone in China agrees. Maybe the Chinese are right? It is, after all, easy to blame trade imbalances on the evil exchange rate machinations of others. In the mid-1980s Japan’s surplus was supposedly the consequence of a deliberately undervalued yen. But while the yen has since risen a good deal – as shown by last week’s decision by the Bank of Japan to lower the exchange rate – its surplus has stubbornly grown too.

儘管華盛頓人人都認爲人民幣應升值,但不是每一個中國人都這麼想。難道中國人是對的?畢竟,將貿易失衡歸咎於他國操縱匯率的陰謀詭計是很容易的。上世紀80年代,日本龐大的盈餘被認爲是蓄意低估日元的結果。但儘管後來日元大幅升值——這一點從上週日本央行(BoJ)決定干預匯市以壓低日元就可看出——該國盈餘仍在頑強地成長。

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