Great power shifts are usually accompanied by changes in the international reserve currency. So it is telling that China is taking steps to broaden the use of the renminbi among international investors. Dominance of the global economy, Beijing believes, goes hand-in-and with dominance of the global monetary system.
Measures to internationalise the renminbi are nothing new. Hong Kong banks have offered offshore renminbi accounts for more than six years, and currency swap agreements with foreign central banks have been in place since 2000. But they have accelerated in recent months. Restrictions on offshore transfers have been eased and a programme allowing companies to settle cross-border trades in renminbi expanded. Last week’s decision to open up domestic bond markets was particularly significant. Until then there were few investment opportunities for international holders of renminbi.
These are, however, only small steps. Whether China will be able to stomach the rest of the renminbi’s journey to reserve currency status is far from clear.