觀點走進2010

WHY MARKET SENTIMENT HAS NO CREDIBILITY
別把市場情緒當回事


英國華威大學名譽教授斯基德爾斯基:有人說,政府除了照市場說的去做,別無選擇。但我認爲,政府的治理應該最符合人民的利益,而非「市場」的利益。

It is not surprising that Britain's largest economic downturn since the war should have seen the largest ever peacetime government budget deficit. By the end of this year Britain's output will have fallen by about 5 per cent since the crisis started; in the same period the budget deficit will have risen by between 5 per cent and 8 per cent of output. Arithmetic so simple that even a child can understand it: smaller output, smaller revenues, larger deficit. And the corollary: larger output, larger revenues, smaller deficit.

在英國陷入戰後最嚴重經濟衰退之際,政府的預算赤字也應達到和平時期的最高水準,這並不讓人感到意外。到今年年底,英國的產出將比危機開始時下降約5%,與此同時,預算赤字佔產出的比重將上升5%到8%。連小孩子都能理解其中簡單的算術關係:產出減少,收入減少,赤字增加。以此類推:產出增加,收入增加,赤字減少。

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