The truth is sometimes simple, however elaborate the detail. The main feature of the world economy over the past few years has been the growing savings surplus of China and other Asian countries. Until recently it was offset by consumer borrowing in the west, especially in the US and the UK. This had to come to an end because of unsustainable consumer debt ratios. There is no early prospect of this thrift being balanced either by an investment boom in the west or by investment in non-Chinese developing economies. Nor is China going to reduce its savings surplus on the scale required either directly or by appreciating the renminbi in response to international pleading. The hole in the world economy can only be filled by deficit spending by the stronger western governments. If this is inhibited by fiscal tightening, recovery will be strangled.
事實的真相有時很簡單，無論其細節是多麼的複雜。過去幾年，世界經濟的主要特徵就是中國和其它亞洲國家日益擴大的儲蓄盈餘。以前，西方國家（尤其是美國和英國）的消費者借款抵消了這一盈餘。但這種局面已告終結，因爲西方消費者的債務比率已升至不可持續的水準。短期內，西方國家的投資熱潮或中國以外發展中經濟體的投資，都不太可能抵消西方消費者量入爲出的影響。甚至連中國也不會將其儲蓄盈餘的規模削減至應有水準，無論是通過直接方式，還是通過響應國際呼籲、允許人民幣升值。世界經濟的缺口只能由較強大西方國家政府的赤字支出來填補。如果財政緊縮抑制了這種支出，那麼復甦就將被扼殺。