Misaligned exchange rates are more often than not a prelude to trade friction. Yet so far, in spite of sporadic outbreaks of warlike political rhetoric between the US and China, currency misalignments between the world's surplus savings countries and the world's borrowers and spenders have not ended in disaster. Buy America provisions and bail-outs for bankrupt motor companies are less damag- ing than trade barriers of the kind erected by the Smoot-Hawley Act in the 1930s. Yet the reality, in this financial crisis, is that we have protectionism by the financial backdoor and may soon have it by the front door.
匯率失調往往是貿易摩擦的前奏。但迄今爲止，儘管中美兩國之間不時出現帶有敵意的政治言論，但全球儲蓄盈餘國與借款國及消費國之間的匯率失調並未招致災難。購買美國貨條款以及爲破產汽車企業紓困所造成的破壞力，遠不及上世紀30年代《司莫特-郝利關稅法》(Smoot-Hawley Act)製造出的貿易壁壘。不過，在此次金融危機中，實際情況是，我們在私下施行了金融保護主義，或許很快就將公開推行保護主義。