油價

OIL BOON

The credit crunch may have sparked the crisis. But it was arguably high oil prices that first pushed the world towards recession by helping to trigger the US slowdown in December 2007. By the same token, the fall in oil prices has now helped the world economy back to its feet. Government handouts are peanuts by comparison.

Look at the sums. Last year, oil prices averaged $100 a barrel. As the world was then consuming some 88m barrels of crude a day, that amounted to a total annualised cost of $3,200bn. The subsequent collapse in crude prices has cut this year's average by half, to $50, generating an annualised saving of $1,600bn.

Compare that to what governments have pledged to spend. Excluding bank bail-outs, the International Monetary Fund estimates the discretionary fiscal stimulus provided by G20 countries this year and next will total 2.7 per cent of combined gross domestic product. As G20 output is about $45,000bn, this is equivalent to $1,200bn. That is three-quarters of the help that lower oil prices have provided in one year alone. Oil exporters such as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for 40 per cent of output, should take a short bow.

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