專欄臥底經濟學家

Are those who sweat the big stuff in meltdown?
宏觀經濟學趕快反省吧


FT專欄作家哈福德:宏觀經濟學無法給出解決當前危機的答案,甚至提不出正確的問題。與金融市場一樣,這門學科到了需要自省和自我修正的轉折點。

A confession: I was never very good at macroeconomics as an undergraduate, and my postgraduate studies were even more of a challenge. My lecturers described the economy as the solution to an inter-temporal optimisation problem in which a single representative household decided how much to consume and how much to save. I struggled with the sums (they were hard ones) and almost as much with the entire concept, which seemed to ignore what was interesting about macroeconomics. I did what I could, passed my exams and concentrated on microeconomics instead. (Those confused should recall P.J. O'Rourke's explanation of the difference between the two: microeconomics concerns things that economists are specifically wrong about, while macroeconomics concerns things that they are wrong about generally.)

我坦白:念本科時,我的宏觀經濟學成績一直不太好,研究生階段的學習對我更是一種挑戰。我的授課教師們把經濟描述爲一個跨期優化問題,在該問題中,某一個具有代表性的家庭決定消費多少和儲蓄多少。掌握各種運算(它們很難)讓我費了很大勁,這門學科的整體概念也幾乎同樣令我費解——它似乎忽略了宏觀經濟學最有意思的地方。我做了力所能及的努力,通過了考試,然後轉而重點研究微觀經濟學。(感到困惑的讀者應該回憶一下P•J•歐魯克(P•J•O'Rourke)對二者不同之處的解釋:微觀經濟學關注經濟學家所犯的具體錯誤,宏觀經濟學則關注他們所犯的一般性錯誤。)

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臥底經濟學家

蒂姆•哈福德(Tim Harford)是英國《金融時報》的經濟學專欄作家,他撰寫兩個欄目:《親愛的經濟學家》和 《臥底經濟學家》。他寫過一本暢銷書也叫做《臥底經濟學家》,這本書已經被翻譯爲16種語言,他現在正在寫這本書的續集。哈福德也是BBC的一檔節目《相信我,我是經濟學家》(Trust Me, I’m an Economist)的主持人。他同妻子及兩個孩子一起住在倫敦。

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