For this year, people want to know whether China will grow at 8 per cent, the magic number deemed necessary to ensure social stability. That is the wrong question. China will grow at 8 per cent if its statisticians say so. Even if the pain of lower growth is felt on the ground, one isolated year of slowdown is unlikely to spark the popular rebellion some imagine. China's population still believes its government can deliver strong growth in the long run. Only if there were a number of years of sharply lower growth are there likely to be more than isolated disturbances.
對於2009年，人們關心的是中國能否實現8%的經濟成長率。這個神奇的數字被認爲是確保社會穩定的必要條件。但這個命題不對。只要中國的統計學家這麼說，中國就會實現8%的成長率。即使人們在生活第一線感受到更低經濟成長率帶來的痛苦，僅僅一年的經濟放緩是不太可能像有些人想像的那樣引發民衆騷亂的。中國人依然相信，政府有能力實現經濟的長期強勁成長。除非經濟多年大幅減速，否則充其量也只會出現一些孤立的騷亂事件。
