China trade
LEX專欄:中國出口前景堪憂?


中國12月出口同比僅下降2.8%,但該數據無疑低估了實際受損情況。從南韓及臺灣出口猛跌的情況看,中國不久將迎來更嚴重的出口下滑。

This undoubtedly understates, or rather lags, the damage. The biggest hint comes from neighbouring countries. South Korea and Taiwan, the third and fourth biggest importers to China last year, saw exports in December plunge 17 per cent and 42 per cent respectively. Many of these shipments contain parts which China processes or assembles and then ships on to the rest of the world. If Chinese imports of such components are down by around a third, you can bet a more serious export slump will follow soon. Prices are also falling too. Chinese shipment prices to the US fell 0.6 per cent month-on-month in November, according to US data. Morgan Stanley calculates the Chinese export contraction, measured in local currency, is around 10 per cent.

底特律汽車製造商、德國工業企業、日本電子廠商,乃至你願意費心提及的任何製造商,都會對訂單數量呈現如此溫和的下降感到欣慰。中國作爲最受青睞的世界工廠,12月出口同比僅下降2.8%。

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