WHAT IS WRONG WITH ALL THIS ECONOMIC DOOM AND GLOOM
悲觀論調錯在哪裏?


FT專欄作家布里坦:凡事皆有定期,萬物皆有定時。面對嚴重經濟衰退,若鼓勵民衆節儉,只會使形勢更加糟糕,加劇惡性的下行螺旋。

It was obviously even more unpleasant to contemplate than any kind of economic setback. But it seemed to me a pointless and unproductive kind of discussion. I could have answered “a 10 per cent chance”, “a 50 per cent chance”, or “an 80 per cent chance” with equal plausibility. I did not and could not know. Nor could anyone else. This kind of pointless crystal-gazing only deflected attention from a much more important question. This was: “Are we doing enough to reduce the probability of such a catastrophe?” By “we” I did not mean mankind in general but the government of the country in which I happened to live and was a citizen, namely the UK.

這分明比設想任何一種經濟衰退都更加讓人不快。可在我看來,這種討論徒勞無益。我可以回答「有10%機率」、「有50%機率」或「有80%機率」,都似乎同樣有道理。我不知道,也無法知道。沒有人能夠知道。這種無意義的揣測,只會轉移人們對一個更重要問題的注意力。這就是:「爲了降低發生這種災難的可能性,我們是否做得足夠?」此處的「我們」不是泛指人類,而是指我身爲一介公民所居住的國家,即英國的政府。

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