China needs a true change of course
中國應抓住經濟轉型的機遇


中國規模龐大的財政刺激計劃方向有誤。中國與其試圖重振經濟的昔日勢頭,不如化危機爲機遇,努力實現其所追求的經濟轉型,即讓國內消費在整體經濟中佔有更大的比重。

After the co-ordinated rate cut in October, the Chinese cut interest rates in a show of solidarity. Now the rest of the world is talking about fiscal stimulus, and China is charging ahead. The State Council has announced a vast fiscal stimulus programme to pull China through the coming grim years. The stimulus, however, is taking the wrong form. Rather than trying to prop up the Chinese economy as it was, this is an opportunity to turn it into the economy China wants – one where consumption at home has more than a cameo role. The government must seize it.

中國經濟正在放緩,這並不令人驚訝。全球經濟低迷,無疑會影響到中國這個世界第二大出口國。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)數據顯示,中國經濟2007年成長率爲11.9%,2008年爲9.7%, 2009年則爲8.5%。對西方國家來說,這樣的成長相當強勁。但對任何一個國家而言,如果經濟成長出現3個百分點的下滑,而國內還不出現任何問題,那將是少見的。

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