It is not often that habitual complacency makes you an astute judge of world events, particularly those involving geopolitical conflict. But for decades a shrug has been the best response to the perennial panics over shortages of critical raw materials for the green transition. The causes have ranged from China threatening to cut off exports of rare earths and other minerals to the soaring global prices of metals such as nickel and lithium. In practice, the routine operation of market forces, plus some support from diplomatic and legal efforts, ensured they had only passing impact.
習慣性的自滿很少能讓你對世界局勢擁有敏銳的判斷力，尤其是對於地緣政治衝突。但是幾十年來，儘管人們總在擔憂對綠色轉型至關重要的原材料可能出現短缺，他們所做出的回應卻充其量只是聳聳肩。引起這種恐慌的因素很多，比如中國威脅要切斷稀土及其他礦產的出口，或者鎳和鋰等金屬國際價格暴漲。而事實上，由於市場力量的慣常運作，加上外交及法律措施也起到一定作用，這些因素都只產生了短暫影響。