觀點人工智慧

Why it is too soon to call the hype on AI’s productivity promise
如何預估AI的未來?

History shows it can take decades for new technologies to deliver their full economic potential
桑希爾:關於AI,揣摩它的演變方向也許比估計它的發展速度更容易。

Even the smartest experts have a hard time predicting the future of technology. Consider the example of Bob Metcalfe, the inventor of Ethernet who, in 1995, boldly forecast that the internet would experience a catastrophic collapse — or a “gigalapse” — the following year.

再聰明絕頂的專家也難以預測技術的未來前景。看看鮑勃•梅特卡夫(Bob Metcalfe)的例子,這位乙太網發明者在1995年大膽預測,網路將在來年遭遇災難性的崩潰,或者說「千兆故障」(gigalapse)。

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