Who is right about the future of oil? The International Energy Agency has predicted that global demand for oil, along with natural gas and coal, will peak this decade, in a historic turning point. US supermajors beg to differ. ExxonMobil’s purchase of shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources this month and Chevron’s deal this week to acquire Hess amount to the biggest consolidation in Big Oil for two decades. The tie-ups are a bet that the IEA’s vision of shrinking demand is wrong, or at least a bid to position these enlarged US giants among the last producers standing to meet the demand they believe will still exist by mid-century. In doubling down on oil, US groups are also widening the gap with European peers that have begun, tentatively, to embrace clean energy.
關於石油的未來，誰是正確的？國際能源署(IEA)預測，全球對石油、天然氣和煤炭的需求將在本十年見頂，這是一個歷史性的轉折點。美國石油巨擘對此看法不同。埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)本月收購頁岩油生產商先鋒自然資源(Pioneer Natural Resources)，以及雪佛龍(Chevron)本週收購赫斯(Hess)的交易，是大型石油公司20年來最大規模的整合。它們的聯姻是在押注國際能源署關於需求萎縮的看法是錯誤的，或者至少是爲了讓這些規模增大的美國巨擘躋身於最後屹立者之列，能夠滿足它們認爲到本世紀中葉仍將存在的需求。在加大對石油的投資的同時，美國企業也擴大了與歐洲同行的差距，後者已試探性地開始擁抱乾淨能源。