You know things are bad when a former Steady Eddy is buckling at the knees. Country Garden, China’s largest and previously safest property group, has reported a 96 per cent drop in earnings. This has worrying implications for investors. Net profits fell to Rmb612mn ($88mn) in the first half, the biggest decline since Country Garden listed in 2007. The group’s fortunes mirror China’s economic health more accurately than peers. The company specialises in homes for mid to lower income people and avoids high-risk projects.
The read-across to smaller, more speculative peers is that some of them will report terrible numbers in the coming weeks. Ronshine China Holdings, Sino Ocean and Zhenro Properties are just some of the property groups expected to book steep net losses. For Central China Real Estate, that figure could run as high as Rmb6bn ($870mn).
Stalled construction projects and falling property sales will trigger a number of impairments. Developers are caught up in a vicious cycle of undercutting each other.