Expectations that lower consumer spending will drive an economic contraction in December and January have been fuelled by a drop in restaurant bookings and coffee shop spending in the UK due to the Omicron variant.
High-frequency data on mobility, retail footfall and credit card transactions, published on Thursday, showed “much lower levels of activity in consumption sectors in December”, said Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics, a consultancy.
Though the government has deferred its decision on introducing further restrictions until after Christmas, a mix of greater consumer caution and reduced mobility is likely to “ensure that UK GDP falls in December”, he added.
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