The departure of Angela Merkel after 16 years of steadfast chancellorship was always going to be unsettling for a country such as Germany that craves stability. But few had expected the result of Sunday’s federal election to be so inconclusive. The centre-right and centre-left parties are now shadows of their former selves and will have to share power in the first three-way coalition since the 1950s. Negotiations could take months, depriving the country of proper leadership and thwarting policymaking in the EU.
Some things are clear from the ballot. The Social Democrats and their chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz are the winners. With 26 per cent of the vote, they are weak by historical standards. But the electoral swing in their direction from the centre-right was emphatic. The SPD toppled numerous CDU heavyweights and won two regional elections on the same night. Scholz benefited from the blunders of his rivals. But he also ran a smart campaign. It was not just his skill in emulating Merkel’s cautious leadership style. He constructed a programme with clearly identifiable social democratic policies, such as a higher minimum wage, coupled with a determination to fix problems bequeathed by successive grand coalitions. Scholz took back ownership of an agenda that Merkel has often appropriated for her own electoral gain.
Scholz also remains Germans’ preferred choice as chancellor. Even if not directly recorded in votes, it matters. Scholz should have the first claim on forming a coalition with his preferred partners, the Greens and the Free Democrats. And Armin Laschet, his CDU counterpart, should recognise it.