The writer is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge university, and adviser to Allianz and Gramercy
For many years, the operational simplicity of positioning investment portfolios has contrasted sharply with the complexity of national and global economic outlooks.
By getting the central bank policy call right and simply overweighting index products, investors profited substantially from both stock and bond investments. Meanwhile, economists struggled to predict even basic economic variables such as growth and inflation.
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