International trade has been an engine of growth for the world economy. But that engine is now sputtering. A good part of the explanation for this is failure — failure to understand the benefits of trade, failure to share its gains, failure to help those adversely affected, failure to update the global rules, and failure to sustain essential co-operation. Donald Trump’s administration made all this worse. Joe Biden’s should now strive to rectify these failures.
Over the past 60 years, the ratio of world trade in goods and services to world output has risen from 12 per cent to just over 30 per cent. It is no coincidence that this era has also experienced the fastest economic growth in history, a huge fall in the share of the world’s population in extreme poverty and, for the first time since the industrial revolution, a decline in inequality among the world’s households. The superior performance of economies that embraced trade, such as South Korea and China, demonstrates its positive role in driving prosperity.
Yet trade is far from healthy. As the World Trade Organization has noted, growth in trade slowed sharply after the 2008 financial crisis and took another blow during the pandemic. The slowdown is partly due to the economic crises and the natural exhaustion of opportunities. But it is also explained by how long it has been since significant trade liberalisation, the rise of protectionism, and the election of Mr Trump as president, a protectionist and fierce opponent of multilateralism.