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Lessons from Japan: coping with low rates and inflation after the pandemic

Fearing prolonged stagnation, governments are looking to Tokyo’s experience during the past three decades

Japan’s bankers celebrated the end of the 1980s with raucous parties and an all-time high of 38,957 on the Nikkei stock index. It had been a magnificent decade and they all looked forward to another one.

The economy had grown by an average of 4 per cent a year and seemed well set to continue on a similar path. By 1995, forecast Nomura Securities, the Nikkei index would hit 63,700. It was a thrilling, golden era. Foreign officials, financiers and journalists rushed to Tokyo. Everyone wanted to learn the lessons of Japan.

They still do. Thirty years on, Japan’s economy has not lost its fascination. But rather than the secrets to miraculous economic growth, today’s students of Japan want to know how to respond when the good times stop.

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