An Imperial College coronavirus model has had a profound impact on public policy since its results were shared with British and American officials last week.
No study has so exhaustively detailed the transmission of the virus through the UK and US population, the overwhelming pressure it has placed on health systems, or the limited effectiveness of individual measures to check its progress.
Like any simulation, it rests on uncertain assumptions. Many factors remain unknown to the research team led by Professor Neil Ferguson, who this week fell ill with coronavirus symptoms. But even with this caveat the conclusions are brutally stark: democratic politicians face only terrible choices in the battle to save lives.
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