A spectre is haunting the global economic system. “Phantom” foreign direct investment now accounts for 40 per cent of the global stock of foreign direct investment, or around $15tn in total, according to IMF research. This capital, equivalent to the annual national income of China and Germany combined, plays no productive role in the economies which host it, instead it is moved around the world purely to reduce big companies’ tax bills.
FDI statistics aim to capture when a company expands to a new country. It is defined as an investor taking at least a 10 per cent ownership stake. Historically it has been regarded by governments as a particularly valuable form of investment as it can increase productive capacity and lead to transfers of technology and management expertise, raising the rate of growth. It is seen as a “sticky” form of investment that stays put even at times of stress.
Yet this vision is increasingly outdated. Much of today’s FDI is accounted for by mergers rather than so-called greenfield investment in new facilities. After the Brexit vote the amount of FDI into the UK increased to its highest level on record, but it largely reflected the purchase of London-listed South African brewer SABMiller by Belgium-based AB InBev. The deal had almost nothing to do with the UK economy other than London’s role as a destination for international listings.