China’s arguably unfair business practices may be the justification behind US President Donald Trump’s trade policy, but as with any war the collateral losses are likely to extend well beyond the intended target.
In an interconnected world built on a complex web of supply chains and mutual economic interdependencies, China’s trade partners, particularly in east and south-east Asia are likely to be among those hit hardest by the fallout. Yet there may be opportunities for some, particularly if the trade war is long lasting.
China’s exports to the US rose 8.2 per cent in the first nine months of the year, says Thomas Costerg, senior US economist at Pictet Wealth Management. He estimates they are on track to reach a record $550bn this year, up from $505bn in 2017.