In the past, an investor would have been broadly right to call the end of any emerging market party by monitoring the twin tides of US dollar liquidity and mineral commodity price cycles. If one of these two tides were ebbing — the US dollar appreciating or mineral prices falling — the emerging market party would likely be drawing to a close. If both were receding, the party would almost certainly be over.
過去，通過監測美元流動性和礦產大宗商品價格週期這兩股大潮，投資者基本上就可以準確地判定任何一場新興市場派對是否已到達終點。如果這兩股大潮之一在退卻——美元升值或礦產價格下跌——那麼新興市場派對可能就接近尾聲了。如果兩股大潮都在退卻，那派對幾乎肯定就結束了。
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