Whatever your thoughts and fears about the latest tariff tension, we live in a world dominated by capital flows, not trade flows. Global trade matters, but capital matters more.
So, let’s ask what drives cross-border capital flows. Part of the answer lies with government policies, but part is also explained by the systematic response of investors to periods of economic acceleration. If the policy factors often represent a “push”, then these economic factors more frequently provide the “pull”.
Looking at the data, global markets are being jolted by both push and pull factors. But if there is a common driver, it is that the world is in thrall to China.
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