The great wars of the 20th century were often preceded by a catastrophic miscalculation. The Germans failed to anticipate that Britain would fight over Belgium in 1914. Stalin failed to anticipate Hitler’s invasion of Russia. Japan and America repeatedly misunderstood each other’s motives and reactions in the run-up to Pearl Harbor. In 1950, the US failed to anticipate that China would enter the Korean war.
20世紀的重大戰爭在爆發之前通常都出現過災難性的誤判。德國人未能預測到英國會在1914年因比利時加入大戰。史達林(Stalin)未能預料到希特勒(Hitler)會入侵蘇聯。日本和美國在珍珠港事件之前曾多次誤會對方的動機和反應。1950年，美國未能料到中國會參加韓戰。
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