The effects of the oil price crash of 2014 are still reverberating around the Middle East. A decade of plenty, when oil prices were high, has been replaced by two years of fiscal crisis and the region continues to feel the pain. In the oil-rich Gulf states, for example, growth is expected to slow to 0.9 per cent this year, compared with 2 per cent in 2016, as exporters trim output in a bid to support flagging oil prices.
Economists see hopeful signs of recovery, however. In its most recent outlook for the region, the IMF expects non-oil growth in the Gulf to rise to 3 per cent in 2017 against 2 per cent last year. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in particular, are looking to bolster this growth by enhancing trade with the US and China. Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest economy, needs to foster a recovery after two years of slashing expenditure to cover gaping budget deficits. The private sector has been too reliant on state spending and the kingdom is keen to open up new avenues for investment and trade.
This month, Donald Trump chose Saudi Arabia for his first overseas visit since taking office and agreed deals worth as much as $380bn including an $110bn arms deal.