The surprising thing about the fall in the value of sterling is that it has not been more precipitous. Britain is shuffling towards an outright rupture with the EU and an immigration clampdown that would weaken engagement with the world beyond. The government has yet to grasp a simple fact of globalisation: nations cannot declare themselves open for business and then close the door to foreigners.
Britain will be poorer after Brexit — the pound’s devaluation is acting as a transmission mechanism to reduce living standards. Just how much poorer will depend on the quality of the relationship Britain retains with its biggest trading partner and on whether it can compensate for lost European opportunities by becoming a more attractive destination for others. A “soft” Brexit and an “open” economy should be the goal. The preoccupation, some would say obsession, with immigration points in the opposite direction, to a hard break with the EU and a less hospitable business environment for nations further afield.
Theresa May’s debut this week at an EU summit in Brussels will see the prime minister pressed by European colleagues for a clear sense of Britain’s direction. They will be disappointed. The government has yet to come up with a coherent strategy for disengagement. In place of a plan, there are a series of inconsistent impulses and a cabinet power struggle between anti-EU zealots and economic pragmatists.