European integration has suffered the greatest blow in its history with the UK’s Leave vote. But Britain is no longer the priority. The most pressing question is not how the UK leaves the EU. It is also hard to imagine the country taking up the EU presidency in 2017; it should pass on the job.
Given the range of challenges the EU faces with Libya, Syria, Russia, the euro, youth unemployment and the refugee crisis, the most urgent and profound danger for the EU is not economic or geopolitical: it is psychological. The danger is that we fall into a state of paralytic shock. The fear that pro-European governments feel in the face of rising popular nationalism threatens to accelerate the erosion of the European project. It also leads to inaction, which fuels the perception that pro-European politicians are self-satisfied and do not hear the concerns of Europe’s citizens. The next referendum, wherever it may be, could well end in a defeat for Europe.
The lesson from the Brexit debate is that pro-Europeans cannot allow anti-Europeans to dominate the public debate. The populists are stubbornly convinced of their position — with the possible exception of Boris Johnson, the former London mayor and leading Leave campaigner — and will defend it against all rational arguments. But the EU’s proponents lack such ardour. If the pro-Europeans’ main tactic is to scare people into support of a status quo and capitalise on the fear of change then the unravelling of Europe is inevitable.