觀點中國經濟

The Fed’s ‘China problem’

You don’t hear much these days about capital outflows from China. The renminbi seems well behaved, and China’s foreign exchange reserves have stayed stable in the past couple of months. Sure, the economy itself faces a bunch of challenges, as the government hasn’t quite found a way to maintain rapid growth rates without a dangerous degree of reliance on credit. But you don’t get the sense that the Chinese are falling over themselves in a rush to buy dollars.

The Fed might take heart from this. On two occasions in the past year, the US Federal Reserve’s intentions to raise interest rates have been confounded by financial turbulence caused by large outflows from China. The first was last summer, when the Fed was forced to postpone rate hikes following a surge in flows from China after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) introduced a new regime for fixing the renminbi on August 11th. The second was this winter, when another surge in outflows that coincided with the Fed’s December rate hike made it impossible for the Fed to keep doing so. So, if capital seems happy to stay in China, is it now ‘safe’ for the Fed to tighten US monetary policy?

Not quite. Actually, the main reason why capital isn’t flowing from China these days is precisely because of the fact that the Fed hasn’t been expected to raise rates. If that were to change, capital outflows from China would once again become a source of global risk aversion.

您已閱讀29%(1429字),剩餘71%(3465字)包含更多重要資訊,訂閱以繼續探索完整內容,並享受更多專屬服務。
版權聲明:本文版權歸FT中文網所有,未經允許任何單位或個人不得轉載,複製或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵權必究。

中東期待沙烏地阿拉伯制衡川普

阿拉伯國家希望穆罕默德王儲和美國當選總統川普的密切關係能夠緩和川普政府的中東政策。

投資者押注防務支出增加,Palantir成爲「川普交易」贏家之一

彼得•蒂爾創立的數據公司的最大客戶是美國政府,自川普本月當選以來,其市值增加了230億美元。

Lex專欄:成長來之不易,雀巢前景平淡

要實現其成長目標,這家瑞士集團需要增加行銷投資。

Lex專欄:便宜商品是沃爾瑪股價上漲的基礎

沃爾瑪通過吸引高收入顧客和增加其他收入來源,出色地應對了經濟不景氣和通膨帶來的挑戰。

Lex專欄:奢侈品品牌寄希望於自己的美國夢

奢侈品在美國越來越具有吸引力,可能爲該行業提供新的成長跑道。

諾和諾德準備下一代減肥藥的試驗結果

這家丹麥公司預計,最新數據將顯示CagriSema可在一年多的時間內減輕25%的體重。
設置字型大小×
最小
較小
默認
較大
最大
分享×