Google’s recent announcement that its DeepMind technology had defeated one of the world’s highest-ranked champions at the ancient game of Go is just one example of the many dramatic advances unfolding in the fields of artificial intelligence and robotics. Machines are rapidly taking on ever more challenging cognitive tasks, encroaching on the fundamental capability that sets humans apart as a species: our ability to make complex decisions, to solve problems — and, most importantly, to learn. DeepMind’s feat was especially remarkable not just because the technology ultimately prevailed, but because the system largely trained itself to do so.
In the coming decades, machine learning is likely to be the primary driving force behind a Cambrian explosion of applications in robotics and software automation. It won’t be long before the tools and building blocks that enable engineers and entrepreneurs to create smart robotic systems will be so advanced and accessible that nearly any opportunity to leverage the technology will be identified and addressed almost immediately. The near-term future is likely to be transformed not by general purpose robots or AI systems but rather a nearly limitless number of specialised applications. Collectively, these systems are likely to span the entire job market and economy, ultimately consuming nearly any kind of work that is on some level routine and predictable.
Sceptics will be quick to point out that history clearly shows that advancing technology creates new types of work even as it destroys existing occupations. This process will doubtless continue, but it seems unlikely that sufficient opportunities will be created to absorb the workers pushed out of traditional jobs. To take just one example, consider the impact of self-driving cars. Clearly, the jobs of millions of people who drive taxis or delivery vehicles or work for Uber will be at high risk.
