Nigeria’s journey from bankrupt, pariah state to Africa’s largest economy helped to fuel a surge in optimism about the continent over the past 15 years. Now there is a danger that its latest troubles will trigger a bout of despair. As one seasoned investor puts it: “Nigeria, with help from South Africa, is killing the African story.”
Part of that story was hyperbole — notably the broad-based nature of the continent’s revival. While there was a boom in services, investment flows and an expansion of the middle class, growth in many states was largely jobless, and underpinned by soaring world prices for commodity exports. This was especially true in Nigeria, which still depends on crude oil for more than 90 per cent of hard currency earnings and typically around two-thirds of state revenues.
Since the fall in oil prices, the cracks in Nigeria’s economy have quickly reappeared. Starved of fuel, electricity and foreign exchange the economy is grinding to a halt. Businesses are laying off staff in droves.