Sometimes the interesting story lies not where the crowd is looking, but somewhere off-camera. So it is with the potential inclusion of China’s mainland-listed A-shares in MSCI indices, on which a decision is due next week. Meanwhile, MSCI has already announced that it will include China-based New York listings such as Alibaba, JD.com and Sina Corp in its global indices from November.
Overseas-listed China shares are not universally cheaper than their mainland brethren, which look like they are in a bubble. Price to forecast earnings per share multiples for the overseas listings range from 11 (Qihoo) to 122 times (JD.com) 2016 estimates. Shanghai’s composite index trades on 17 times. Still, Shanghai’s forecast earnings growth of 14 per cent for that year is lower than that of the US names due to join the MSCI index.
MSCI inclusion is one potential fillip for the shares, but Alibaba and its New York peers may be in for a far bigger jump in demand. Mainland Chinese are also being encouraged to invest overseas. Last week China’s Securities Times said that the country would launch a pilot scheme to allow people with assets of more than $160,000 to invest overseas. They will be permitted to buy overseas shares, bonds, and property directly rather than from government-approved lists.