觀點歐元區

The success of eurozone QE relies on a confidence trick

The economic equivalent of “famous for being famous” is the idea of a rise in confidence because of a policy whose main transmission channel is confidence. The discussion about quantitative easing is precisely this. It is as self-referential as the statement that it works because it works.

An example of such circularity was the forecast by the European Central Bank this month, which predicts a solid economic recovery in 2016 and 2017 on the grounds that QE would work.

The forecast even suggested that inflation would rise close to the central bank’s target of just under 2 per cent within the next two years. Since the declared rationale for the ECB’s purchase of sovereign bonds was to raise inflation expectations, one might conclude that the programme was already working. What makes this even more amazing is that the ECB had not bought a single bond at the time. The only thing that changed is that everybody was suddenly more confident — because everybody else was.

您已閱讀19%(974字),剩餘81%(4099字)包含更多重要資訊,訂閱以繼續探索完整內容,並享受更多專屬服務。
版權聲明:本文版權歸FT中文網所有,未經允許任何單位或個人不得轉載,複製或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵權必究。
設置字型大小×
最小
較小
默認
較大
最大
分享×