The perils of forecasting the Chinese agricultural market came to the fore earlier this month when the US Department of Agriculture slashed its predictions for Chinese corn imports.
Last year, the USDA reckoned China was set to become the largest importer of grain. But mounting evidence of rising inventories and falling demand triggered a rethink and it has dramatically cut its forecasts. Last year’s long-term import forecast of 22m tonnes for 2023/24 has been reduced to just 6.5m.
“The whole picture has really changed over the past 18 months or so,” said Fred Gale, senior economist at the USDA’s economic research service.
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