The situation in eastern Ukraine — like the resulting stand-off between the west and Russia — is extremely grave. More than 5,000 people have died and more than 1m have been displaced. Whatever Moscow pretends, this is not a civil conflict. It is a war between two European countries, one that risks escalating into a regional conflagration.
The gulf in narratives between western capitals and Moscow over what is happening on the ground is particularly alarming. If Russia continues to deny basic facts — notably the presence of its own regular troops alongside the rebel forces fighting in Ukraine — the chances of reconciling differences are slim. Divisions were laid bare at this weekend’s annual Munich Security Conference. An uncomfortable-looking Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, was all but laughed off the stage after delivering a speech reminiscent of the Brezhnev era.
The frantic diplomatic efforts by Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s François Hollande over recent days to rekindle last September’s Minsk accord are therefore critical. Talks in the Belarusian capital with President Vladimir Putin are now set for Wednesday. Though never properly honoured by the east Ukrainian separatists and their Russian backers, the Minsk accord remains a viable basis for a ceasefire that might pave the way to a broader settlement.