The victory of far-left Syriza in last weekend’s Greek general election opens a dangerous new phase in the eurozone crisis. Its leader Alexis Tspiras has demanded an end to the “fiscal waterboarding” that in his view has left Greece trapped in a debtor’s prison. But the rest of Europe, and Germany in particular, have so far stood their ground. If no compromise can be found Greece risks being bundled out of the euro by the end of the year.
The scale of Greece’s problems sets it apart from the rest of Europe. The depression Athens suffered was as deep as any since the 1930s. Unemployment has soared and remains high, and Greece remains cut off from capital markets while other countries borrow ever more cheaply. After a rescheduling in 2012, its enormous debt is mostly owed to other European governments.
It is easy to see why Syriza put debt repudiation at the heart of its electoral campaign. John Paul Getty once opined that “if you owe the bank $100, that’s your problem; if you owe the bank $100m, that’s the bank’s problem”. Greece’s predicament may ultimately force creditors to the negotiating table. To service its debt burden would require Greece to operate as a quasi slave economy, running a primary surplus of 5 per cent of GDP for years, purely for the benefit of its foreign creditors. Even the IMF has dropped hints in favour of some debt forgiveness.