Will Russia annex new territory in Ukraine or Europe?
No. Faced with an economic crisis at home and with sanctions overseas, Mr Putin will call a halt to his expansionism — at least in 2015. Instead, the Russian leader will attempt to consolidate his gains in Crimea and to keep parts of “eastern Ukraine” in a frozen conflict. This will prevent them from being governed effectively from Kiev.
Still, that judgment should be tempered by two sobering qualifiers. First, the Russian leader has consistently surprised western observers on the downside — few anticipated Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. Second, one possible reaction to economic trouble at home would be for Mr Putin to stir up domestic support and nationalism by further intensifying the conflict in Ukraine. But despite all that, the economic and military risks of an expanded war look too great for Moscow in 2015. Gideon Rachman