The announcement of closer Russian-Chinese military co-operation is a striking sign of how geo-political competition is hotting up – as both Russia and China look to push back against a US-dominated world.
Russia, in the midst of the crisis in Ukraine, is eager to show that it has alternatives to the West and a powerful new ally in China. China also has a strong motivation to push back against America. The Chinese greatly resent America’s much-ballyhooed “pivot to Asia” – which includes stationing 60 per cent of the US navy in the Pacific. One of China’s weaknesses in the contest with the US for dominance in the Asia-Pacific is that it has few clear allies in the region. By contrast, America has defence treaties with Japan and South Korea, and close ties with several South-East Asian nations. However, by getting closer to the Russians, the Chinese potentially set up a powerful nascent alliance of their own.
It is yet to be seen how much substance there are to these ties. But two of the announcements made by the Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, are particularly eye-catching. First, his statement that Russia and China are intent on forming a “collective regional security system” suggests that this is potentially a very ambitious arrangement – that might go far beyond the occasional joint naval exercise. “Collective security” arrangements imply a Nato-like commitment to collective self-defence. Second, the suggestion that China and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the Mediterranean next year is also slightly mind-boggling. If we see the Chinese navy on patrol in the Med, it really will feel like a new world.