Buy fear in emerging markets? Sure. Here’s the fear: big current account deficits are about to get a whole lot bigger as Federal Reserve tapering entices foreign money away. The eurozone periphery (ex-Italy) ran growing deficits before its crisis, and look what happened to it. But EM central banks in the worst deficit countries can do what euro members cannot: they are starting to raise rates (aggressively at times) to entice the money back. This will rebalance current accounts.
趁著恐慌情緒在新興市場買入?當然可以。先來說說恐慌:隨著美聯準(Fed)縮減資產購買規模、引誘外資流出,某些國家的鉅額經常賬戶赤字將會顯著增大。歐元區外圍國家(義大利除外)在爆發危機之前赤字越來越大,後來發生了什麼是有目共睹的。但是,赤字最嚴重的新興市場國家的央行能夠做一些歐元區同行做不到的事:它們正開始提高利率(在某些情況下是大幅加息)以吸引資金迴流。這將有助於經常賬戶的再平衡。