The third plenum of the 18th Party Congress issued an ambitious reform program to transform China’s economy by 2020 into one that relies on market forces rather than government to allocate resources. Launching the program, however, is hampered by the fragile nature of the economy today. Since 2008 China has depended on a vast property bubble to fund fixed asset investment that leads the economy. Ambitious structural reforms usually involve a period of economic slowdown. Doing so amidst a bubble economy may trigger a deep downturn. This is why financial markets have been focusing on the downside from bursting of the bubble rather than the upside from successful implementation of the reform program.
中共十八屆三中全會發布了一份雄心勃勃的改革計劃，要在2020年以前實現中國經濟的轉型，轉爲主要依靠市場力量而非政府來進行資源配置。但這一計劃一推出，就面臨著當前脆弱經濟局面的阻礙。自2008年以來，中國一直依靠巨大的房地產泡沫來爲主導經濟的固定資產投資提供融資。雄心勃勃的結構性改革通常會帶來一段時期的經濟成長放緩。而如果在經濟泡沫期施行結構性改革，則可能導致經濟增速顯著下滑。正因爲此，金融市場才一直在關注泡沫破裂可能帶來的不利影響，而非成功推行改革計劃可能帶來的好處。