There was a time when he International Monetary Fund was a byword for economic reaction. Governments were frequently told by IMF officials to tighten their budgets; monetary policy was often regarded as insufficiently anti-inflationary and, insofar as it dared, the fund would lecture trade unionists on the need for wage moderation.
How things change. The latest IMF World Economic Outlook reflects fears that the world will be too contractionary; monetary and fiscal policy too tight; consumption depressed and unemployment unnecessarily high – and all to combat a much exaggerated inflation threat. But because the 190 or so governments that make up the membership can hardly agree among themselves – let alone with each other – the message has to be disguised in IMF-speak. It is rather like a previously overstrict father telling his adolescent offspring to lighten up a bit and have a few more nights on the town.
The best way to look at the Outlook is to examine the summary forecast tables first and then inspect the text. This is not because the tables have any particular scientific merit but because it is more difficult for the politically appointed directors of the institution to interfere with them than with the text.