It’s a tricky one for the efficient market theory. Last Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that BlackBerry was cutting 40 per cent of its staff. The company couldn’t even manage a denial. This looked like final confirmation of the Canadian company’s demise. Reports of unsold inventory had been swirling (the company called for an investigation of the analysts responsible, betraying its own fears). BlackBerry had already said it was exploring “strategic alternatives”. Yet news of the layoffs did not move the shares. Perhaps, at $10.25, the stock was already trading on the assumption that BlackBerry would be sold for scrap. But then the group said on Friday it would report a terrible second quarter, with revenue falling by half from the first. The shares then tumbled by a fifth – stopped only by a conditional $9 buyout offer yesterday. Had Friday’s sellers thought everybody was getting fired because things were going well? How many hints did these misbegotten souls need?
這是一個用有效市場理論難以解釋的案例。上週三《華爾街日報》(WSJ)報導稱，黑莓(BlackBerry)將裁員40%。這家加拿大企業甚至沒有出面否認，這似乎最後確認了黑莓的沒落。有關黑莓未售存貨的報導傳得沸沸揚揚（而該公司竟然要求對相關分析師進行調查，暴露出其自身的驚慌）。黑莓已表示，正在探索「各種可選戰略」。然而，裁員訊息並沒有導致該公司股價波動。從當時每股10.25美元的價位判斷，投資者或許認爲黑莓會被低價出售。但黑莓緊接著在上週五表示，第二季度財報會很差，營收額環比下降了一半。黑莓股價聞聲下跌五分之一，直到昨日傳出有人願以每股9美元有條件買斷的訊息時才止住跌勢。那些直到上週五才拋售的人是否以爲，大規模裁員是因爲公司情況正在好轉？這些投機者們到底需要多少暗示呢？