The bull/bear arguments about China are evolving – or so we’d like to think – into a more nuanced debate about how the country’s leaders are going to respond to the pressing need for change and how these responses may play out.
One of the key questions is how the large amounts of risky debt in China will be addressed.
Fitch’s Charlene Chu estimates the country’s total debt at about 200 per cent of GDP; Goldman’s estimate is 219 per cent. Both think the rate of growth has been very fast in the past five years, which is another risk indicator in itself.
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