Now that is what you call muscle. The US applies some pressure on Swiss banks over their tax advice, and suddenly Switzerland’s sacred banking secrecy laws are tearing at the edges. The Swiss authorities have agreed to let their banks share some data with the US for a limited time. The intention is that the banks seek settlements and avoid the fate of Wegelin, a Swiss bank that went out of business in January after an indictment in the US.
The large listed Swiss banks have already been making progress. UBS is in the best position. It took its medicine in 2010, paying SFr780m in fines and disgorgements over its US tax advice, so it can now watch serenely as its rivals squirm. That leaves Credit Suisse and Julius Baer as big potential losers. Details of how settlements will be calculated have not been revealed, but factors such as the size of the business, the timing of the advice (particularly whether it took place after UBS had settled) and co-operation with the investigation are likely to count. Credit Suisse has already made a provision of SFr295m, although the final sum is likely to be higher, while analysts estimate that Julius Baer may have to pay SFr300m.
Fines are not nice for shareholders, but at that scale they are affordable. Credit Suisse has tier 1 capital of SFr45bn and made a first-quarter net profit of SFr1.3bn. Even a fine at the same level as UBS would not do too much harm. Julius Baer, meanwhile, has tier 1 capital of SFr3.6bn, so again would be able to pay. And the deal between Switzerland and the US at least brings the whole torrid saga one small step closer to a conclusion.