The cure for high prices is high prices. That venerable folk wisdom of the commodity markets has been put to the test in the US oil industry over the past decade, and earned only partial vindication.
High oil prices have made possible a spectacular renaissance of the US oil industry, which is rebounding in ways that were unimaginable just five years ago. That surge in production is, in turn, helping to hold world oil prices down. Crude has been drifting lower since the summer of 2011.
The outlook depends on many variables, including the health of the world economy and the response from Opec, the oil exporters’ cartel.
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