There are some who fear Abenomics could turn out to be little more than a hope-fuelled rally and a somewhat weaker currency. Not Japan’s banks, it seems, if Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holding’s Y200bn buyback of a state-owned stake dating from the rescue of one of its predecessor banks a decade ago is a guide.
Banks have been among the biggest beneficiaries of Tokyo’s rally since Shinzo Abe was assumed to be the next prime minister. Within the sector’s three-fifths gain, SMTH is the best-performing of the giants, up 45 per cent. That rally has taken its shares above the state’s Y400-a-share break-even point for the first time since 2008, so a prosaic reason for the buyback is that the government wants its money back. Still, any self-funded payout that involves retiring half the shares implies regulatory confidence. Unsurprisingly, shares jumped in other banks with state stakes, including Resona and Aozora.
Deliberating shrinking equity, however, also implies a broader confidence. Banks that can charge average interest of just 1.5 per cent on long-term loans, according to Nomura, will be excited by the prospect of a reflated economy. An improving global outlook does not hurt either. But Japan’s turnround will be slow. Deflation is still the norm. Details of Mr Abe’s growth strategy – the structural pillar of Abenomics after fiscal stimulus and looser monetary policy – are expected only in June. Businesses are still cautious, too: dealmaking, a key source of banking fees and loans, has had its slowest start to a year in at least a decade, according to Dealogic.