It must be flattering for Shinzo Abe, a man whose knowledge of economics is matched only by Ben Bernanke’s expertise in ikebana flower arrangement, to have a whole new branch of the dismal science named after him. “Abenomics” has proved such a potent force that its mere invocation – before any real action to speak of – has helped knock a fifth off the value of the yen and put a third on the value of Japanese equities since October.
Yet at the heart of Abenomics lies a simple, and entirely orthodox, proposition: that deflation is a monetary phenomenon. In Japan, where prices as measured by the gross domestic product deflator have fallen 18 per cent since 1994, that amounts to a revolutionary concept. For more than a decade, the orthodoxy in Japan – at least at the central bank – has been the reverse: that deflation is a “real economy” phenomenon, essentially beyond the reach of monetary policy to fix.
To oversimplify, the BoJ view has been that demographics and cheap imports from places such as China have lowered Japan’s trend growth rate and produced a negative output gap in which supply perpetually outstrips demand. In this view, deflation cannot be beaten without real economic adjustments through fiscal consolidation, higher worker participation and raised productivity. Against these real economic forces, the BoJ view goes, monetary policy is a mere palliative, at best a tool to prevent systemic financial risk.