Will Barack Obama bomb Iran?
No. To borrow the Churchillian metaphor, the US president intends to try jaw-jaw ahead of war-war.
Mr Obama will seek direct bilateral negotiations with Iran. There is no guarantee that Ayatollah Khamenei will agree, but tougher sanctions have provided a powerful incentive. Iran is now feeling serious economic pain as a result of financial and oil sanctions and the regime fears another “Green” revolution. For its part, the US now seems ready for talks that go well beyond Iran’s nuclear ambitions to issues such as a US security guarantee. Benjamin Netanyahu will try to pull Mr Obama in the other direction by urging an early US attack on Iran’s nuclear installations. But after the Israeli prime minister’s support for Mitt Romney in the presidential race and his plan for more Israeli settlements in the West Bank, the White House is in no mood to listen; 2013 could be the year of the big bust-up between the US and Israel.