Look around the world and there are big risks almost everywhere. Countries may drop out of the eurozone. Violence may spread across the Middle East. The US Congress may yet drive the country off its fiscal cliff and into recession. An island dispute between China and its neighbours may flare up, provoking the US to intervene in the Pacific. But in my view, the single greatest risk is that one of these events or some other throws the world into another global financial crisis, a “GFC II”.
放眼全世界,幾乎處處都潛伏著重大危機。有些國家可能退出歐元區。中東的暴力衝突可能擴散。美國國會可能把這個國家推下財政懸崖,使美國陷入衰退。中國與鄰國的島嶼衝突可能加劇,導致美國干預太平洋事務。但我認爲,最嚴重的一種風險是,這些事件中的一起或者其他事件會再次引發全球金融危機,或者說「GFC II」。